The Paradox of U.S. Participation in Offshore Prediction Markets
Despite strict regulatory barriers intended to keep American users off the platform, U.S.-linked wallets have emerged as the dominant force on Polymarket. According to recent on-chain intelligence from Allium, these wallets funneled approximately $571 million into political prediction contracts over the past year-surpassing every other nation in total volume.
This trend highlights a significant regulatory friction point: while domestic venues like Kalshi are restricted to narrow categories such as economic indicators and election outcomes, American traders are actively seeking out offshore platforms to speculate on high-stakes geopolitical events and niche novelty markets.
### Why Geofencing Fails in a Decentralized Ecosystem
Polymarket’s attempt to block U.S. traffic via IP-based geofencing has proven largely ineffective. Because the platform operates on blockchain infrastructure-utilizing non-custodial wallets and stablecoins rather than traditional banking rails
